* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162024 10/21/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 68 68 65 65 61 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 60 54 49 44 47 46 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 60 54 49 44 49 49 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 18 19 26 35 41 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 7 9 8 4 1 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 305 305 295 290 293 282 255 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 167 168 169 168 165 161 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 50 53 53 54 54 52 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 52 65 76 83 79 106 93 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -29 -26 10 12 17 49 9 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 7 6 7 5 10 14 -6 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -15 -12 -16 -33 -2 101 210 309 536 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.9 22.9 24.1 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.5 74.8 75.0 75.1 75.3 75.2 74.3 72.9 70.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 3 5 6 7 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 68 70 68 67 61 52 44 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -0. -4. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.2 74.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162024 OSCAR 10/21/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.36 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 381.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.53 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.77 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 15.7% 10.7% 9.2% 7.7% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 5.6% 4.6% 3.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 7.2% 5.1% 4.1% 3.1% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162024 OSCAR 10/21/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162024 OSCAR 10/21/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 60 54 49 44 47 46 42 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 58 53 48 51 50 46 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 51 54 53 49 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 50 53 52 48 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT