* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162024 10/20/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 72 72 68 64 60 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 71 60 54 47 37 37 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 70 60 53 46 36 39 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 16 19 20 24 32 36 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 3 9 12 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 332 327 324 315 307 285 295 276 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.9 30.0 29.7 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 169 169 168 165 168 163 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 46 48 49 49 52 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 10 11 10 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 28 41 49 60 75 83 94 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -7 -15 -32 -33 -1 24 47 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 6 7 8 7 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 14 26 -32 -40 -48 -9 109 243 333 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 20.6 20.3 20.4 20.4 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.6 74.3 74.9 75.3 75.8 76.2 75.7 74.7 73.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 4 4 4 6 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 63 65 69 70 71 67 59 53 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -6. -10. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.8 73.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162024 OSCAR 10/20/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.53 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 500.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.41 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.05 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.78 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 16.2% 11.1% 11.0% 10.2% 10.6% 6.5% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 7.3% 6.0% 3.6% 2.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 8.1% 5.9% 4.9% 4.1% 4.1% 2.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.3% 4.0% 2.9% 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 1.1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162024 OSCAR 10/20/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162024 OSCAR 10/20/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 60 54 47 37 37 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 58 52 45 35 35 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 60 53 43 43 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 53 43 43 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT