* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162024 10/20/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 85 87 88 84 81 74 64 51 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 81 85 87 88 84 81 74 64 51 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 84 90 93 95 95 89 78 66 55 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 20 22 20 26 29 39 43 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -7 -3 1 9 7 -2 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 335 327 320 317 305 299 279 280 265 255 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 169 169 166 167 165 158 151 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 43 44 46 52 52 55 58 54 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 8 7 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 1 7 18 38 51 69 74 90 93 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -58 -22 -11 4 -5 -17 25 16 34 26 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 2 2 8 4 2 -2 -5 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 146 42 19 47 50 30 53 189 339 488 626 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.0 21.1 21.6 22.6 24.3 25.7 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.6 72.6 73.6 74.1 74.6 75.3 75.7 74.8 73.7 72.7 71.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 5 4 3 4 8 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 59 61 63 65 66 63 56 47 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -3. -5. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 12. 13. 9. 6. -1. -11. -24. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.4 71.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162024 OSCAR 10/20/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 14.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 539.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.37 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.05 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.47 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.80 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.8% 40.3% 33.5% 26.8% 20.3% 13.2% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 21.0% 35.0% 34.2% 19.1% 7.6% 7.3% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 8.7% 8.4% 6.5% 2.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.8% 27.9% 24.7% 16.2% 9.6% 7.0% 4.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 34.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 27.9% 14.4% 12.8% 9.1% 4.8% 3.5% 2.0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162024 OSCAR 10/20/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162024 OSCAR 10/20/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 11( 24) 9( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 85 87 88 84 81 74 64 51 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 78 80 81 77 74 67 57 44 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 74 70 67 60 50 37 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 62 59 52 42 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 81 85 76 70 66 63 56 46 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS