* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162024 10/19/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 79 85 87 89 87 85 79 69 58 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 79 85 87 89 87 85 79 69 58 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 84 93 98 100 100 96 89 78 66 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 19 21 23 29 36 43 51 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -6 -7 -4 4 7 7 5 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 347 343 335 328 324 313 302 287 286 270 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 171 170 170 168 166 168 163 156 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 45 44 43 49 50 51 52 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -5 -4 8 15 38 62 66 81 80 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -67 -57 -37 -18 5 2 -1 0 23 12 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 1 -3 0 2 6 3 2 3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 169 146 43 10 45 25 20 116 227 343 529 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.9 21.3 22.0 23.1 24.4 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.6 71.6 72.6 73.4 74.1 75.0 75.7 75.1 74.2 72.9 71.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 3 3 6 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 61 60 60 61 63 67 66 61 52 44 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -23. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 15. 17. 19. 17. 15. 9. -1. -12. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.4 70.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162024 OSCAR 10/19/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 514.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.9% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 29.9% 60.8% 61.3% 37.1% 14.8% 23.5% 2.9% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 20.6% 20.7% 12.4% 5.0% 15.8% 5.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 33.0% 4.0% 4.0% 10.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 21.5% 12.3% 12.3% 11.2% 3.0% 7.9% 2.7% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162024 OSCAR 10/19/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162024 OSCAR 10/19/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 10( 14) 11( 23) 10( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 79 85 87 89 87 85 79 69 58 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 75 77 79 77 75 69 59 48 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 70 68 66 60 50 39 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 60 58 52 42 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 70 79 85 76 70 66 64 58 48 37 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS