* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162024 10/19/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 43 47 50 53 52 49 46 47 49 49 49 55 62 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 43 47 50 53 52 49 46 47 49 49 49 55 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 45 47 47 45 40 36 32 30 29 28 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 12 14 15 23 29 37 38 38 39 30 28 33 27 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -6 -5 -6 -1 5 6 3 3 3 2 2 5 6 6 5 SHEAR DIR 359 348 339 329 330 311 313 302 291 290 269 254 226 220 232 259 279 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.1 29.5 28.6 27.0 24.9 19.6 13.0 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 173 171 170 170 169 168 166 169 171 172 163 150 131 113 87 75 74 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 7 8 8 7 6 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 48 49 46 44 44 50 54 60 62 58 59 65 55 41 55 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -20 -8 -6 5 34 51 63 55 69 76 89 67 -20 12 20 43 200 MB DIV -98 -61 -48 -35 -12 -14 -2 39 41 43 43 62 111 70 52 84 31 700-850 TADV 3 3 0 0 -3 -1 3 7 12 12 18 27 30 38 15 -76 102 LAND (KM) 185 199 142 70 9 14 54 23 98 304 571 939 1436 1123 595 1204 716 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.4 20.9 20.8 21.3 22.0 22.9 24.5 27.2 31.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.6 70.8 71.7 72.4 73.0 73.8 74.2 73.7 72.4 70.6 68.1 64.8 60.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 7 6 5 3 1 6 8 11 17 24 32 38 50 54 45 HEAT CONTENT 61 61 59 59 60 63 65 62 57 55 39 16 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. 28. 32. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -3. -9. -15. -22. -25. -26. -29. -30. -30. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 17. 14. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 20. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.3 69.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162024 OSCAR 10/19/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -50.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% Logistic: 6.2% 20.0% 16.2% 7.4% 4.0% 13.0% 5.9% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 16.5% 5.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 12.2% 7.1% 2.6% 1.3% 4.5% 2.0% 4.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 7.1% 4.0% 1.8% .6% 2.2% 1.0% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162024 OSCAR 10/19/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162024 OSCAR 10/19/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 43 47 50 53 52 49 46 47 49 49 49 55 62 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 40 44 47 50 49 46 43 44 46 46 46 52 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 35 39 42 45 44 41 38 39 41 41 41 47 54 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 32 35 38 37 34 31 32 34 34 34 40 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT