* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152024 10/19/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 35 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 33 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 5 2 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 227 229 157 161 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 170 165 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 77 79 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 15 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 71 68 65 61 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 104 100 74 52 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -1 1 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 179 159 81 -35 -160 -146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.6 86.5 87.4 88.6 89.8 92.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 65 63 57 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 15. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 85.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152024 FIFTEEN 10/19/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.34 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.51 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.93 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 38.5% 21.2% 9.1% 6.2% 14.5% 23.5% 52.8% Logistic: 10.8% 58.3% 33.4% 15.7% 11.2% 29.0% 59.4% 85.6% Bayesian: 3.2% 35.1% 10.2% 3.4% 2.9% 13.9% 35.1% 91.8% Consensus: 6.2% 43.9% 21.6% 9.4% 6.8% 19.1% 39.3% 76.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.6% 22.4% 10.8% 4.7% 3.4% 9.5% 19.6% 38.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152024 FIFTEEN 10/19/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152024 FIFTEEN 10/19/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 35 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 34 31 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT