* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/12/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 36 35 35 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 36 35 35 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 33 29 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 21 38 41 50 60 55 51 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 5 7 4 -4 -3 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 259 257 258 261 279 300 301 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 24.5 23.7 23.1 22.3 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 107 101 97 93 87 88 88 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.0 -49.0 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 46 49 52 51 43 38 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 14 14 16 15 13 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -99 -116 -123 -111 -28 50 62 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 51 64 48 61 22 24 5 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 15 28 33 23 -3 6 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1731 1676 1667 1762 1878 1623 1183 831 394 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.4 34.1 35.8 36.7 37.6 38.1 37.9 37.3 37.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.9 42.1 39.3 36.5 33.8 28.1 23.0 18.8 13.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 29 26 24 23 21 19 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 25 CX,CY: 16/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -7. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -9. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 32.4 44.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/12/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/12/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/12/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 37 36 35 35 31 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 37 36 35 35 31 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 34 30 27 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 29 25 22 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT