* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/12/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 40 40 38 33 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 40 40 38 33 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 41 40 36 31 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 8 23 29 35 55 55 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 1 5 10 0 3 3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 312 260 261 265 269 295 310 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.7 24.7 24.1 23.4 22.0 21.8 22.4 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 116 108 104 99 91 89 91 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -50.4 -49.5 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.7 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 51 47 49 52 50 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 12 14 17 15 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -72 -89 -112 -125 -79 7 70 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 23 53 56 42 63 -20 -5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 -1 17 32 27 -4 -6 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1879 1768 1691 1732 1811 1878 1445 1094 746 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 32.1 33.8 35.0 36.2 37.5 37.0 35.8 35.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.1 44.8 42.4 39.4 36.4 30.9 25.8 21.3 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 26 27 27 25 21 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 19 CX,CY: 11/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 829 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -12. -17. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.4 47.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/12/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.23 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.30 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.84 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 5.1% 3.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% 1.4% 1.1% .5% .5% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/12/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/12/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 42 40 40 38 33 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 41 41 39 34 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 39 37 32 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 33 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT