* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/11/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 39 36 36 36 33 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 39 36 36 36 33 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 35 34 32 30 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 29 23 16 2 22 38 55 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 12 13 7 6 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 35 34 33 30 43 249 260 275 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.0 24.4 23.1 22.1 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 127 124 118 106 97 91 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 6 5 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 44 46 50 54 45 46 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 10 10 12 13 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -76 -80 -56 -60 -68 -114 -109 -58 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -39 -17 -18 1 6 46 44 16 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 2 8 15 27 14 -10 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1448 1611 1775 1927 1812 1748 1926 1750 1289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 27.1 28.4 30.0 31.5 34.4 36.3 37.0 37.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.8 49.8 48.9 47.1 45.3 40.1 34.5 29.3 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 19 22 24 25 23 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 17 12 7 3 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -12. -16. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.8 50.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/11/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.29 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.65 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 6.5% 4.3% 4.0% 2.9% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 1.6% .7% .7% .5% 1.1% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/11/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/11/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 41 39 36 36 36 33 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 42 39 39 39 36 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 38 38 35 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 35 32 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT