* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/11/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 41 39 36 35 33 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 45 41 39 36 35 33 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 45 41 38 36 33 31 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 37 27 22 14 15 38 49 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 3 9 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 37 38 36 31 255 260 274 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.6 25.1 23.7 22.3 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 130 127 124 111 101 92 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 7 4 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 47 48 53 52 44 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 12 11 9 10 11 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -72 -75 -53 -50 -87 -120 -81 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -24 -32 -10 11 25 37 40 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 5 3 15 8 41 11 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1365 1470 1577 1783 1923 1734 1800 1959 1553 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 26.0 27.0 28.5 29.9 33.1 35.8 37.0 37.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.1 50.6 50.2 48.8 47.5 43.0 37.1 31.7 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 15 19 21 26 25 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 21 18 11 8 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -6. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -14. -14. -17. -20. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.9 51.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/11/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 0.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.17 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 424.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.49 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.08 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.35 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.65 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.1% 3.2% 2.0% 1.8% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .2% .5% .3% .3% 0% .8% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/11/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/11/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 45 41 39 36 35 33 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 45 43 40 39 37 34 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 41 40 38 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 36 34 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT