* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/11/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 41 35 31 30 29 31 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 41 35 31 30 29 31 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 39 32 28 26 23 22 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 42 35 29 22 8 21 35 51 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 8 4 5 5 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 39 38 38 33 30 12 264 271 284 301 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.2 24.6 23.5 22.6 22.3 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 129 128 120 107 99 93 91 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.1 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 5 3 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 52 51 47 49 54 43 43 47 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 13 12 11 13 12 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -81 -71 -75 -81 -43 -61 -99 -102 -54 -2 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 0 -26 -28 -7 4 31 48 -18 -8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 5 7 8 6 21 32 19 4 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1318 1388 1463 1607 1753 1845 1773 1916 1823 1426 1115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.0 25.9 27.1 28.3 31.1 33.8 35.6 36.5 36.4 35.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.1 50.9 50.7 49.9 49.1 45.6 40.7 35.5 30.0 25.4 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 14 17 23 24 23 21 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 25 22 17 12 4 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -10. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -13. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -19. -20. -21. -19. -24. -28. -34. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.1 51.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/11/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.18 0.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.08 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 438.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.47 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.07 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.35 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.76 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.9% 2.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .2% .5% .3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/11/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/11/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 41 35 31 30 29 31 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 43 39 38 37 39 34 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 42 41 40 42 37 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 38 40 35 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT