* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/10/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 71 65 58 50 43 41 38 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 79 71 65 58 50 43 41 38 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 75 69 64 54 48 44 43 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 33 40 43 38 25 10 22 34 54 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 0 -1 -4 0 5 2 6 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 29 41 43 41 32 17 269 274 280 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.3 25.1 24.0 23.0 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 132 132 129 120 110 102 95 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 9 5 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 45 50 49 47 54 44 42 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 18 16 13 11 13 14 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -92 -101 -89 -78 -80 -56 -82 -120 -112 -62 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -5 2 -2 -12 -25 0 35 30 -10 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 4 6 -5 10 12 6 -16 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1338 1347 1359 1416 1476 1771 1908 1820 1963 1883 1455 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.8 25.6 28.0 30.5 32.9 34.8 36.0 36.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.2 50.4 50.5 50.4 50.3 48.6 45.6 41.5 35.8 30.6 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 9 11 16 19 24 23 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 32 29 25 22 13 5 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -20. -24. -22. -19. -19. -20. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -11. -10. -12. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -20. -27. -35. -42. -44. -47. -54. -60. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 22.9 50.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/10/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 47.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 806.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/10/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/10/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 4( 14) 0( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 79 71 65 58 50 43 41 38 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 76 70 63 55 48 46 43 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 68 60 53 51 48 41 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 68 60 53 51 48 41 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 58 51 49 46 39 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT