* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/10/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 87 80 73 59 49 43 42 35 31 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 87 80 73 59 49 43 42 35 31 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 92 90 85 80 68 57 50 47 45 41 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 24 30 36 38 24 2 21 28 53 58 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 6 10 6 4 0 -4 14 2 10 7 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 335 358 16 23 39 41 25 260 269 282 282 285 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.2 25.2 24.2 23.0 22.3 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 132 133 131 130 127 119 111 103 95 90 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 10 8 5 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 41 42 47 50 49 52 42 42 38 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 17 18 16 13 12 14 13 13 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -76 -89 -109 -95 -77 -72 -95 -131 -130 -75 -22 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -26 -21 -5 -14 -26 -14 8 12 30 -14 -2 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 5 1 -1 0 0 -7 10 15 16 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1428 1403 1380 1387 1399 1536 1817 1906 1901 2017 1885 1527 1257 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.7 24.3 25.9 28.1 30.7 32.5 34.3 35.9 36.5 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.0 49.4 49.8 50.0 50.3 49.8 48.1 45.0 40.6 35.6 30.7 26.6 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 7 11 16 20 22 22 19 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 32 32 30 27 21 13 4 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -15. -22. -28. -34. -38. -43. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -14. -22. -23. -19. -16. -14. -13. -14. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -9. -12. -12. -14. -15. -19. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -10. -17. -31. -41. -47. -48. -55. -59. -67. -71. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 22.3 49.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/10/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 873.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 3.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.0% 1.7% .7% .1% .1% .1% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/10/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/10/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 4( 24) 0( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 87 80 73 59 49 43 42 35 31 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 86 79 72 58 48 42 41 34 30 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 79 72 58 48 42 41 34 30 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 73 59 49 43 42 35 31 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 57 47 41 40 33 29 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 65 55 49 48 41 37 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 87 78 72 68 58 52 51 44 40 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS