* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/09/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 80 77 72 60 51 46 44 42 40 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 81 80 77 72 60 51 46 44 42 40 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 83 83 81 77 68 57 50 45 43 40 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 17 21 25 29 38 32 11 17 36 37 52 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 5 10 7 5 -5 7 6 7 11 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 341 3 19 23 38 27 7 258 281 281 289 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.6 25.5 24.6 23.8 23.0 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 132 132 133 131 129 123 113 106 100 94 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 10 9 5 4 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 41 40 42 50 48 53 45 39 42 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 19 18 16 14 13 14 16 17 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -60 -76 -92 -108 -74 -67 -87 -125 -152 -106 -74 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -6 -30 -11 2 -20 -15 4 11 53 16 -33 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 3 0 -1 -2 -12 -10 31 0 13 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1434 1410 1390 1384 1381 1474 1706 1966 1876 1946 2012 1706 1387 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.3 23.8 25.3 27.4 29.8 32.1 33.8 34.9 35.6 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.8 49.2 49.6 49.9 50.2 50.1 48.9 46.2 42.0 37.5 32.9 28.6 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 9 14 19 21 20 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 32 32 32 30 23 15 8 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -18. -16. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -10. -8. -8. -14. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -8. -20. -29. -34. -36. -38. -40. -50. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.9 48.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/09/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 799.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.81 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 10.5% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 3.3% 2.3% 1.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.8% 4.3% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 6.0% 4.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.7% 4.5% 3.7% .8% .6% .2% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/09/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/09/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 4( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 81 80 77 72 60 51 46 44 42 40 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 78 75 70 58 49 44 42 40 38 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 73 68 56 47 42 40 38 36 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 53 44 39 37 35 33 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT