* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/09/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 75 74 70 59 49 43 40 35 32 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 76 75 74 70 59 49 43 40 35 32 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 76 76 75 73 66 57 48 44 41 38 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 15 21 26 35 35 12 8 32 46 57 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 7 10 7 0 1 7 6 7 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 306 344 6 25 37 45 21 219 252 272 288 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.1 25.0 23.7 23.1 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 132 132 131 127 119 109 99 94 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 3 3 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 41 43 44 48 51 51 47 37 38 38 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 19 19 16 14 12 12 11 11 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -64 -66 -78 -92 -90 -53 -46 -85 -123 -124 -103 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -3 -9 -33 -21 -18 -20 -9 15 39 24 -40 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 2 2 -1 0 2 -7 -5 18 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1479 1440 1407 1392 1379 1410 1568 1887 1873 1871 2035 1837 1621 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.4 24.5 26.4 28.8 31.2 33.3 35.0 35.6 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.2 48.8 49.3 49.6 50.0 50.3 49.8 47.8 44.4 39.7 34.4 30.3 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 8 12 17 21 23 20 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 31 32 32 32 26 20 11 4 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -11. -8. -8. -10. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -15. -18. -18. -23. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -5. -16. -26. -32. -35. -40. -43. -52. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.4 48.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/09/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.47 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 716.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.19 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.06 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.85 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 12.5% 9.1% 8.1% 7.4% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 5.7% 5.2% 2.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 6.6% 5.3% 3.6% 2.9% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 5.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.9% 5.8% 5.1% 2.8% 2.4% 1.5% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/09/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/09/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 4( 13) 0( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 76 75 74 70 59 49 43 40 35 32 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 72 68 57 47 41 38 33 30 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 66 55 45 39 36 31 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 61 50 40 34 31 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT