* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/09/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 70 68 61 49 40 35 35 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 70 68 61 49 40 35 35 28 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 71 71 71 71 66 57 48 42 39 37 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 5 10 21 28 30 37 28 7 23 44 53 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 0 -2 3 9 6 -4 9 6 7 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 303 318 346 6 34 35 24 337 250 273 290 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.5 25.5 24.7 24.0 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 132 132 131 131 130 121 112 106 100 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 4 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 44 42 43 47 54 52 54 46 38 37 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 17 18 18 15 12 10 12 10 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -59 -62 -67 -75 -99 -62 -51 -66 -90 -108 -86 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -24 -13 -19 -36 -12 -15 -12 21 8 33 -28 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 3 3 2 0 6 11 -3 0 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1532 1492 1450 1428 1408 1409 1506 1768 1951 1895 1978 2054 1844 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.0 24.0 25.4 27.6 30.1 32.0 33.5 34.5 35.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.1 48.7 49.1 49.5 50.0 49.8 48.3 45.6 41.8 37.4 33.6 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 10 15 18 19 18 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 29 30 31 32 28 22 15 6 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -16. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -11. -9. -11. -13. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -15. -19. -19. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. -0. -2. -9. -21. -30. -35. -35. -42. -45. -51. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.9 47.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/09/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 648.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.26 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.05 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.76 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 14.7% 10.5% 9.2% 8.2% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 9.1% 9.4% 5.8% 2.5% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 8.3% 7.3% 5.1% 3.6% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 12.0% 11.0% 6.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 8.5% 10.1% 9.1% 5.5% 4.8% 2.4% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/09/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/09/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 3( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 1( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 72 70 68 61 49 40 35 35 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 70 68 66 59 47 38 33 33 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 62 55 43 34 29 29 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 51 39 30 25 25 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT