* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/09/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 73 74 71 65 55 45 39 41 35 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 73 73 74 71 65 55 45 39 41 35 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 73 74 75 74 71 62 51 44 41 39 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 6 11 23 32 32 34 18 7 38 55 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 4 0 0 12 10 0 0 10 3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 159 290 303 328 351 21 32 33 22 233 259 281 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.3 25.2 24.3 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 131 131 132 132 129 126 120 110 103 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 5 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 46 44 44 41 44 53 53 54 50 39 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 19 17 18 15 13 10 13 11 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -49 -59 -62 -67 -90 -79 -51 -47 -60 -91 -90 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -4 -25 -8 -14 -30 -17 -13 -9 27 18 24 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 3 4 3 1 8 8 0 -12 -8 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1575 1547 1494 1470 1449 1412 1439 1626 1916 1957 1921 2003 1960 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.5 24.7 26.4 28.4 30.5 32.5 34.1 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.7 47.4 48.1 48.5 48.9 49.7 50.1 49.1 47.1 44.1 40.2 36.1 32.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 6 6 8 11 15 18 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 28 29 29 30 31 25 19 11 5 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -8. -11. -11. -9. -9. -12. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -7. -11. -17. -15. -19. -18. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 4. 1. -5. -15. -25. -31. -29. -35. -37. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.4 46.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/09/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 656.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.80 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.4% 15.5% 11.0% 9.3% 8.1% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 9.7% 9.3% 4.8% 1.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 5.6% 6.5% 6.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.2% 10.6% 9.1% 4.9% 3.3% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 8.0% 13.0% 13.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 9.1% 11.8% 11.0% 6.4% 4.1% 3.1% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/09/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/09/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 2( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 73 73 74 71 65 55 45 39 41 35 33 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 69 70 67 61 51 41 35 37 31 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 64 58 48 38 32 34 28 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 51 41 31 25 27 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT