* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/08/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 69 68 65 56 47 40 36 37 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 69 68 65 56 47 40 36 37 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 68 68 66 61 52 44 38 36 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 3 8 12 30 35 36 28 14 21 43 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 6 5 1 8 9 6 0 3 6 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 164 175 289 315 323 7 24 31 23 1 255 282 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.7 25.7 24.9 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 132 131 132 132 131 129 124 114 107 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 5 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 46 44 43 43 46 55 51 55 45 36 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 18 18 16 14 12 10 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -47 -50 -62 -65 -77 -103 -68 -63 -81 -108 -131 -103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -2 5 -16 6 -46 -8 -5 -17 3 -9 37 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 1 2 3 5 3 1 0 8 -3 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1596 1563 1538 1503 1470 1432 1417 1508 1758 2031 1912 1942 2093 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.9 23.8 25.3 27.2 29.4 31.7 33.4 34.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.1 46.8 47.5 48.0 48.5 49.2 49.8 49.7 48.1 45.4 42.1 38.2 34.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 9 14 17 19 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 28 28 28 29 31 30 23 16 8 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -10. -9. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. -17. -20. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -9. -18. -25. -29. -28. -32. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.7 46.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/08/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 618.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.29 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.61 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 14.8% 10.4% 8.6% 7.6% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 6.6% 6.3% 4.2% 1.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.5% 3.8% 4.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 8.4% 7.0% 4.4% 3.0% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 4.1% 8.2% 6.5% 3.7% 2.5% 3.1% .1% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/08/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/08/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 68 69 68 65 56 47 40 36 37 33 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 65 66 65 62 53 44 37 33 34 30 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 61 58 49 40 33 29 30 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 51 42 33 26 22 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT