* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/08/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 61 61 61 62 55 48 39 36 36 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 61 61 61 62 55 48 39 36 36 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 58 58 58 57 51 43 38 35 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 2 4 21 35 30 32 17 2 26 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 7 6 4 0 8 11 3 -3 6 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 168 160 180 278 353 19 33 35 34 322 263 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.7 25.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 132 132 132 132 133 132 131 129 123 115 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 9 9 8 7 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 44 41 40 45 55 56 55 54 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 20 19 18 18 16 15 12 9 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -46 -46 -50 -59 -60 -82 -79 -48 -42 -53 -86 -106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 3 -2 -7 -29 -12 -39 -4 -16 -1 9 -33 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 2 2 3 3 4 8 7 10 -3 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1662 1603 1552 1528 1481 1412 1361 1385 1493 1737 1998 1927 1989 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.4 23.2 24.2 25.6 27.5 29.6 31.5 33.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.1 46.0 46.9 47.5 48.2 49.2 50.1 50.4 50.1 48.6 45.8 42.2 38.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 9 8 6 6 6 9 14 17 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 28 28 28 29 32 32 28 22 15 8 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -7. -5. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -9. -14. -20. -22. -22. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. -5. -12. -21. -24. -24. -23. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.0 45.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/08/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 580.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.33 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.42 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.3% 9.6% 7.7% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 2.7% 0.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.0% 4.7% 3.5% 0.3% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.2% 4.0% 2.8% 2.2% .6% 3.1% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/08/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/08/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 61 61 61 62 55 48 39 36 36 37 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 61 61 61 62 55 48 39 36 36 37 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 56 57 50 43 34 31 31 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 51 44 37 28 25 25 26 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT