* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/08/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 61 60 59 57 47 40 34 32 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 61 60 59 57 47 40 34 32 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 59 57 56 55 54 51 45 38 32 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 10 10 11 8 26 41 33 33 19 13 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 6 4 10 8 2 1 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 196 217 197 199 284 341 9 21 22 37 321 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 130 131 130 130 131 131 129 128 124 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 45 43 45 45 44 47 59 60 59 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 17 17 15 16 15 13 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -32 -41 -51 -49 -60 -64 -83 -85 -59 -44 -70 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 -10 -4 10 -1 -7 -19 -49 0 9 21 -22 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 5 3 6 7 7 8 6 11 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1764 1777 1725 1675 1632 1549 1506 1468 1471 1541 1695 1917 1771 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.5 21.1 22.4 23.3 23.9 25.1 26.1 27.1 29.0 31.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.0 43.9 44.8 45.6 46.5 47.8 48.6 49.3 50.0 49.9 48.8 47.6 46.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 7 5 6 6 6 9 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 27 26 26 27 27 29 28 24 21 17 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -5. -9. -12. -12. -11. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -24. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -18. -25. -31. -33. -34. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.0 43.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/08/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 571.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.57 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 12.6% 8.4% 7.2% 6.7% 10.1% 7.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 1.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.2% 4.0% 3.4% 2.6% 4.2% 2.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.3% 3.1% 2.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 1.3% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/08/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/08/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 61 61 60 59 57 47 40 34 32 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 62 62 61 60 58 48 41 35 33 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 60 59 57 47 40 34 32 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 53 51 41 34 28 26 25 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT