* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/07/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 66 65 63 64 63 58 52 47 44 44 45 43 45 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 67 66 65 63 64 63 58 52 47 44 44 45 43 45 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 66 63 61 60 57 57 57 54 47 39 34 31 30 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 12 9 9 4 7 39 40 37 29 21 10 11 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 10 10 9 6 5 3 3 4 0 -4 -5 0 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 151 164 189 211 193 243 326 7 25 30 37 38 51 310 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.2 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 150 149 147 149 155 158 158 160 160 158 149 141 131 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 5 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 45 45 46 44 43 49 58 55 57 54 62 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 18 16 16 15 15 13 11 9 7 6 3 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -10 -26 -42 -54 -58 -66 -73 -90 -83 -64 -53 -83 -94 -88 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 8 -10 -3 4 -2 -13 -39 -20 -21 -26 -18 -11 0 37 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 6 2 4 3 5 3 7 4 9 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1769 1772 1780 1758 1705 1635 1542 1474 1458 1454 1480 1606 1810 1945 1772 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.2 20.0 21.3 22.2 23.0 23.7 24.5 25.4 26.6 28.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.7 42.5 43.3 44.2 45.1 46.6 47.8 48.8 49.3 49.8 50.1 49.5 48.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 11 8 6 5 4 5 5 8 11 14 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 25 26 27 26 27 28 30 30 26 23 20 15 8 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. -28. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -7. -12. -18. -23. -26. -26. -25. -27. -25. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.0 41.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/07/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.44 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 597.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.58 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 9.8% 6.4% 5.4% 5.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.7% 2.6% 2.2% 1.9% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.3% 1.8% 1.1% .9% 2.1% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/07/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/07/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 67 66 65 63 64 63 58 52 47 44 44 45 43 45 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 68 67 65 66 65 60 54 49 46 46 47 45 47 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 63 64 63 58 52 47 44 44 45 43 45 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 59 58 53 47 42 39 39 40 38 40 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT