* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/07/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 73 72 71 69 67 65 59 55 51 50 48 49 46 46 49 V (KT) LAND 75 74 73 72 71 69 67 65 59 55 51 50 48 49 46 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 75 73 70 68 66 63 61 62 62 56 48 42 38 35 33 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 13 11 6 5 3 28 37 29 31 26 19 14 19 12 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 12 9 9 13 11 5 -5 10 8 1 -2 -1 -4 -2 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 172 152 166 187 223 166 309 3 23 36 32 37 53 33 31 26 348 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 147 151 149 148 152 157 160 160 159 160 157 150 143 138 132 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 49 50 48 47 44 43 43 44 46 54 58 57 54 55 58 57 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 16 16 14 12 10 8 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 1 -8 -28 -46 -59 -65 -55 -72 -81 -73 -69 -99 -105 -87 -49 -68 200 MB DIV -12 6 6 -17 -17 8 -25 -16 -37 -8 -30 7 -27 4 4 31 29 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -1 0 3 4 2 2 2 1 5 2 2 0 3 3 -6 LAND (KM) 1744 1753 1762 1766 1751 1649 1582 1480 1432 1412 1413 1480 1614 1789 2009 1945 1856 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.3 19.0 20.4 21.5 22.1 22.9 23.7 24.4 25.4 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.8 41.6 42.4 43.3 44.2 45.9 47.2 48.4 49.2 49.8 50.2 50.1 49.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 7 6 5 5 4 6 7 9 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 25 27 27 27 27 29 31 31 27 23 20 15 10 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 3. 2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -13. -17. -22. -25. -26. -31. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -16. -20. -24. -25. -27. -26. -29. -29. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.0 40.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/07/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.41 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 601.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.30 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.60 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 12.0% 8.1% 6.8% 6.3% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 1.6% 1.8% 2.2% 0.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.3% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.4% 2.8% 2.2% 1.5% 1.1% 1.7% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/07/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/07/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 4( 12) 3( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 73 72 71 69 67 65 59 55 51 50 48 49 46 46 49 18HR AGO 75 74 73 72 71 69 67 65 59 55 51 50 48 49 46 46 49 12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 69 67 65 63 57 53 49 48 46 47 44 44 47 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 62 60 58 52 48 44 43 41 42 39 39 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT