* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/07/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 77 75 72 69 67 64 58 55 55 53 54 52 52 55 V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 77 75 72 69 67 64 58 55 55 53 54 52 52 55 V (KT) LGEM 80 79 77 74 71 67 63 63 65 64 57 50 44 40 37 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 12 16 12 7 2 10 33 36 33 28 21 13 20 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 14 11 7 9 12 5 0 2 4 5 -3 0 -2 -5 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 198 154 138 156 179 172 174 3 11 30 31 39 38 32 1 34 324 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 146 147 150 147 148 154 158 160 161 160 160 157 151 144 139 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 4 4 6 7 700-500 MB RH 53 50 50 50 50 45 46 44 43 48 59 59 60 57 58 50 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 19 17 16 15 14 13 12 10 8 6 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 12 1 -8 -26 -54 -62 -60 -64 -82 -83 -46 -35 -53 -107 -79 -103 200 MB DIV 0 0 14 3 -24 13 -9 -19 -53 -15 -19 -11 -6 -8 -10 -15 5 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -2 0 3 3 1 3 2 4 7 8 7 3 1 -4 LAND (KM) 1740 1740 1747 1746 1744 1688 1610 1532 1454 1385 1358 1375 1455 1529 1658 1916 1918 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.0 19.4 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.0 40.8 41.5 42.4 43.3 45.0 46.5 47.7 48.7 49.7 50.4 50.7 50.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 11 8 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 9 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 24 26 27 27 27 28 30 33 31 27 24 21 17 11 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. -0. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. -26. -30. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -22. -25. -25. -27. -26. -28. -28. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.2 40.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/07/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 587.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.77 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 11.5% 7.9% 6.8% 6.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 1.6% 1.7% 2.6% 0.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 4.6% 3.7% 3.2% 2.3% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.6% 2.8% 2.3% 1.6% 1.1% 1.8% .1% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/07/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/07/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 5( 17) 4( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 79 78 77 75 72 69 67 64 58 55 55 53 54 52 52 55 18HR AGO 80 79 78 77 75 72 69 67 64 58 55 55 53 54 52 52 55 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 73 70 67 65 62 56 53 53 51 52 50 50 53 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 68 65 62 60 57 51 48 48 46 47 45 45 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT