* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/07/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 79 79 78 73 68 66 65 62 61 60 58 61 60 58 59 V (KT) LAND 80 80 79 79 78 73 68 66 65 62 61 60 58 61 60 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 80 79 77 74 72 68 64 63 64 65 62 56 49 45 43 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 6 9 11 7 4 8 24 32 31 30 19 6 5 17 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 14 15 13 11 11 7 3 -2 8 5 1 -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 200 200 149 145 160 234 211 308 353 15 21 28 39 13 308 338 284 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 148 146 146 150 147 151 157 161 162 162 160 157 154 151 140 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 5 5 6 8 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 51 50 48 46 46 45 45 55 60 58 58 55 54 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 19 19 18 17 16 16 15 15 15 12 11 8 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 39 24 15 2 -8 -36 -55 -58 -52 -68 -77 -74 -52 -56 -91 -109 -23 200 MB DIV 41 0 -1 16 4 -21 10 -26 -4 -31 -2 -14 0 -22 5 -19 9 700-850 TADV 3 0 1 0 0 1 2 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 2 14 6 LAND (KM) 1776 1760 1750 1748 1751 1767 1657 1579 1480 1393 1315 1286 1299 1353 1464 1694 1845 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.2 18.6 20.0 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.2 24.0 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.0 39.8 40.5 41.3 42.2 43.8 45.6 47.1 48.3 49.4 50.6 51.4 51.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 8 6 7 6 5 5 6 8 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 24 23 25 27 27 27 29 33 33 30 27 25 21 14 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 1. 3. 3. -0. -3. -5. -4. -2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -20. -22. -25. -29. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -12. -14. -15. -18. -19. -20. -22. -19. -20. -22. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.6 39.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/07/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 564.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.85 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 12.5% 8.6% 7.3% 6.4% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 2.3% 2.2% 3.8% 1.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.2% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.4% 4.5% 3.7% 2.7% 3.9% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.8% 3.2% 2.7% 1.8% 1.3% 1.9% .1% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/07/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/07/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 6( 19) 4( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 79 79 78 73 68 66 65 62 61 60 58 61 60 58 59 18HR AGO 80 79 78 78 77 72 67 65 64 61 60 59 57 60 59 57 58 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 75 70 65 63 62 59 58 57 55 58 57 55 56 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 64 59 57 56 53 52 51 49 52 51 49 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT