* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/06/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 83 83 82 77 72 70 72 73 71 69 67 67 67 69 70 V (KT) LAND 80 82 83 83 82 77 72 70 72 73 71 69 67 67 67 69 70 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 82 80 78 73 69 67 69 74 75 70 62 55 52 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 8 6 11 9 3 5 5 17 26 30 19 17 6 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 8 13 15 10 11 13 5 2 12 10 9 1 -1 -1 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 185 197 190 143 129 191 192 322 335 353 24 27 44 31 54 307 277 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 153 150 148 149 148 150 154 160 162 163 162 159 151 143 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 52 51 47 44 46 44 44 43 54 55 61 63 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 16 18 17 17 15 14 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 45 37 29 20 4 -22 -52 -59 -53 -57 -77 -87 -118 -110 -93 -97 -89 200 MB DIV 73 52 -6 -9 13 -19 3 -5 9 -40 -8 -8 -5 -7 21 33 18 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 2 4 3 0 1 1 13 13 LAND (KM) 1783 1751 1725 1722 1724 1719 1700 1596 1491 1404 1357 1349 1355 1475 1683 1864 1860 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 17.4 18.7 19.9 21.1 21.9 22.7 23.7 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.2 39.1 39.9 40.5 41.2 42.9 44.6 46.2 48.0 49.1 49.9 50.5 51.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 6 6 7 6 7 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 25 25 24 27 28 28 30 32 34 32 27 23 17 13 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 3. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -12. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -8. -10. -8. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 13.7 38.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/06/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.41 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 503.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.41 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.36 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.92 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 15.3% 10.6% 8.6% 7.0% 10.2% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 5.4% 4.4% 7.0% 3.0% 4.5% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 7.8% 8.2% 13.9% 0.7% 1.0% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 9.6% 9.6% 5.4% 3.7% 6.0% 3.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 4.5% 5.3% 5.3% 2.7% 1.8% 3.0% 1.6% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/06/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/06/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 9( 15) 8( 22) 6( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 0( 2) 1( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 83 83 82 77 72 70 72 73 71 69 67 67 67 69 70 18HR AGO 80 79 80 80 79 74 69 67 69 70 68 66 64 64 64 66 67 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 75 70 65 63 65 66 64 62 60 60 60 62 63 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 64 59 57 59 60 58 56 54 54 54 56 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 80 82 83 74 68 64 59 57 59 60 58 56 54 54 54 56 57