* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/06/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 83 82 80 74 68 63 62 62 66 64 62 64 65 66 67 V (KT) LAND 80 82 83 82 80 74 68 63 62 62 66 64 62 64 65 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 82 80 77 72 67 63 62 64 68 68 62 57 53 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 9 8 14 8 5 5 11 20 22 29 12 4 13 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 7 14 14 10 8 10 3 2 11 13 4 0 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 179 172 184 174 128 155 240 224 299 328 15 33 56 63 348 272 301 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 153 152 147 150 148 151 157 160 162 160 161 156 145 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 56 52 49 45 45 43 43 44 48 56 60 64 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 21 21 20 20 19 17 16 14 13 17 15 14 13 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 42 49 42 34 20 -9 -35 -51 -52 -43 -60 -79 -103 -83 -72 -95 -99 200 MB DIV 88 81 60 -3 -12 3 -16 -9 -5 0 -23 6 -16 -18 8 29 -12 700-850 TADV 0 4 0 -1 0 0 4 2 2 0 1 4 0 0 4 6 12 LAND (KM) 1781 1765 1741 1722 1710 1709 1700 1620 1541 1464 1397 1370 1381 1459 1592 1797 1916 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.8 15.4 16.7 18.0 19.4 20.6 21.6 22.5 23.4 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.6 38.3 39.0 39.8 40.6 42.2 44.0 45.7 47.2 48.4 49.4 50.1 50.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 6 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 26 26 25 26 28 28 29 30 33 32 28 24 19 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -17. -19. -21. -22. -25. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 0. -6. -12. -17. -18. -18. -14. -16. -18. -16. -15. -14. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 13.0 37.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/06/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.39 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 474.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.44 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 16.2% 11.0% 8.8% 7.0% 10.3% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 5.4% 3.5% 5.1% 2.4% 4.1% 1.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 10.4% 28.2% 22.7% 1.0% 1.9% 4.1% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 16.6% 12.4% 5.0% 3.8% 6.2% 3.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 6.5% 9.3% 7.2% 3.0% 2.4% 3.1% 1.8% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/06/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/06/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 9( 15) 7( 21) 5( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 83 82 80 74 68 63 62 62 66 64 62 64 65 66 67 18HR AGO 80 79 80 79 77 71 65 60 59 59 63 61 59 61 62 63 64 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 73 67 61 56 55 55 59 57 55 57 58 59 60 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 68 62 56 51 50 50 54 52 50 52 53 54 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 80 82 83 74 68 64 58 53 52 52 56 54 52 54 55 56 57