* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/06/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 73 73 69 66 61 60 59 59 58 59 57 60 59 61 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 73 73 69 66 61 60 59 59 58 59 57 60 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 70 69 68 65 62 59 57 57 59 58 55 50 46 43 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 15 14 10 11 11 9 12 12 18 20 32 25 13 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 6 9 10 9 9 7 6 6 12 11 1 1 0 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 225 190 191 202 201 146 193 238 288 312 335 32 49 63 70 114 312 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 29.0 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 157 153 149 152 149 152 158 162 162 162 161 156 149 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 58 59 55 56 51 49 46 48 47 50 50 56 58 64 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 20 20 18 19 17 16 15 15 14 14 12 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 33 38 39 30 23 1 -28 -58 -57 -50 -57 -82 -97 -134 -98 -105 -99 200 MB DIV 64 91 73 56 3 -4 -19 -15 3 27 -27 -23 -7 -8 0 29 26 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 2 2 3 1 2 4 2 -1 0 3 11 LAND (KM) 1746 1788 1764 1737 1717 1690 1687 1634 1513 1426 1343 1296 1271 1358 1546 1716 1856 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 16.1 17.5 18.8 20.1 21.3 22.1 23.0 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.1 37.8 38.5 39.3 40.1 41.7 43.5 45.3 47.2 48.7 49.8 50.7 51.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 8 6 6 6 8 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 25 26 25 25 29 28 30 32 34 34 31 26 20 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -18. -22. -21. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -4. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -13. -10. -11. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 12.6 37.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/06/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.46 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.50 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.91 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 17.7% 11.6% 9.1% 7.7% 11.4% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 13.2% 8.7% 6.1% 9.6% 4.7% 5.5% 2.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 8.0% 10.7% 14.9% 1.0% 1.5% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 9.6% 12.4% 10.9% 6.6% 4.6% 6.5% 4.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 5.8% 8.2% 6.4% 3.8% 2.8% 3.7% 2.0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/06/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/06/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 3( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 73 73 73 69 66 61 60 59 59 58 59 57 60 59 61 18HR AGO 70 69 70 70 70 66 63 58 57 56 56 55 56 54 57 56 58 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 66 62 59 54 53 52 52 51 52 50 53 52 54 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 56 53 48 47 46 46 45 46 44 47 46 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT