* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/06/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 73 72 71 67 65 66 66 68 70 68 70 71 72 73 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 73 72 71 67 65 66 66 68 70 68 70 71 72 73 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 70 69 67 64 61 59 59 60 62 64 63 59 56 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 14 16 9 12 6 5 8 15 25 27 26 15 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 5 7 4 6 8 7 8 4 6 7 2 5 1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 219 221 211 198 200 163 151 219 255 302 314 355 38 62 63 42 251 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 161 160 157 150 147 151 150 155 161 163 162 160 157 156 149 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 8 8 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 59 57 55 52 47 46 46 46 48 50 55 57 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 20 19 19 17 17 16 15 15 16 15 16 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 38 33 36 35 31 16 -12 -45 -62 -55 -57 -75 -95 -99 -92 -90 -74 200 MB DIV 50 62 84 58 44 -7 1 -9 2 9 0 -26 13 -25 -9 5 51 700-850 TADV 4 1 1 3 3 4 1 7 3 4 3 5 2 3 0 6 -7 LAND (KM) 1703 1745 1790 1766 1746 1711 1712 1709 1572 1482 1378 1291 1216 1260 1398 1553 1716 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.6 16.9 18.3 19.6 20.8 21.7 22.7 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.6 37.1 37.7 38.4 39.1 40.8 42.4 44.3 46.3 48.0 49.3 50.6 52.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 12 10 9 8 8 7 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 23 25 26 24 26 28 28 30 34 35 33 28 24 19 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -15. -14. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -5. -4. -4. -2. -0. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 12.1 36.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/06/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.56 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.52 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.91 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 15.9% 10.3% 8.2% 6.7% 10.9% 9.1% 11.3% Logistic: 4.5% 5.5% 2.9% 5.1% 3.1% 6.8% 4.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 4.7% 9.6% 4.6% 0.2% 0.2% 2.6% 1.8% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 10.4% 5.9% 4.5% 3.3% 6.8% 4.9% 4.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 3.5% 6.7% 3.9% 2.7% 2.1% 3.9% 2.4% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/06/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/06/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 4( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 72 73 72 71 67 65 66 66 68 70 68 70 71 72 73 18HR AGO 70 69 70 71 70 69 65 63 64 64 66 68 66 68 69 70 71 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 66 65 61 59 60 60 62 64 62 64 65 66 67 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 58 54 52 53 53 55 57 55 57 58 59 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT