* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/05/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 73 74 73 68 66 63 61 63 64 66 68 70 68 71 72 V (KT) LAND 70 71 73 74 73 68 66 63 61 63 64 66 68 70 68 71 72 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 70 70 68 63 60 57 55 55 57 59 60 60 58 54 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 11 16 14 11 10 12 9 5 6 13 18 28 24 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 6 6 9 8 7 6 4 8 4 8 4 5 7 3 1 SHEAR DIR 252 232 214 218 204 208 154 172 207 271 275 323 32 53 87 111 146 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 162 155 150 151 149 152 158 163 163 163 157 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 8 7 700-500 MB RH 60 62 63 60 58 58 51 50 47 49 46 49 44 49 53 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 20 20 17 17 16 14 15 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 36 36 32 23 -1 -32 -58 -61 -63 -67 -103 -114 -143 -101 -104 200 MB DIV 43 49 69 83 61 8 0 -11 -2 9 22 -27 -43 -31 2 8 57 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 1 3 1 1 2 6 3 2 7 5 4 5 1 5 LAND (KM) 1653 1685 1720 1767 1773 1728 1699 1688 1656 1530 1441 1333 1272 1249 1301 1420 1590 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.9 13.4 14.5 15.8 17.2 18.6 19.9 21.1 22.1 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.7 36.3 36.8 37.4 38.1 39.5 41.2 43.1 45.0 46.9 48.5 49.9 50.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 12 11 10 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 22 24 26 24 28 28 29 31 35 35 31 26 23 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -12. -16. -17. -17. -17. -18. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 3. -2. -4. -7. -9. -7. -6. -4. -2. -0. -2. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 11.4 35.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/05/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.56 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.53 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.92 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 16.6% 10.8% 8.6% 7.1% 11.1% 9.1% 10.7% Logistic: 4.7% 6.2% 3.3% 6.8% 4.2% 7.4% 3.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 3.7% 7.6% 3.9% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 10.1% 6.0% 5.2% 3.8% 6.7% 4.3% 3.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 4.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.1% 2.4% 3.8% 2.1% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132024 LESLIE 10/05/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/05/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 3( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 73 74 73 68 66 63 61 63 64 66 68 70 68 71 72 18HR AGO 70 69 71 72 71 66 64 61 59 61 62 64 66 68 66 69 70 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 66 61 59 56 54 56 57 59 61 63 61 64 65 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 54 52 49 47 49 50 52 54 56 54 57 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT