* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/05/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 80 81 80 77 76 76 72 71 68 67 68 70 72 78 V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 80 81 80 77 76 76 72 71 68 67 68 70 72 78 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 76 78 78 77 74 71 69 69 67 65 62 59 59 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 10 10 14 14 8 10 11 16 15 15 12 18 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 5 3 3 6 4 5 8 6 6 3 11 7 4 5 1 SHEAR DIR 341 336 287 257 227 211 209 149 210 257 270 264 288 13 58 99 107 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 161 163 163 163 162 154 149 150 149 150 156 161 163 163 158 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 67 63 62 62 65 60 59 53 52 50 53 52 53 49 52 53 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 19 19 19 18 18 19 17 18 16 15 14 14 14 18 850 MB ENV VOR 40 39 35 35 36 33 21 -10 -38 -54 -55 -56 -70 -100 -113 -140 -92 200 MB DIV 22 35 61 69 83 50 -7 2 -7 10 -11 21 -45 -21 -11 18 37 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 3 2 5 2 1 2 4 5 8 12 9 6 6 12 LAND (KM) 1603 1616 1632 1662 1696 1773 1742 1710 1725 1681 1564 1484 1426 1366 1312 1331 1448 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.7 12.1 13.4 14.8 16.1 17.7 19.0 20.0 21.2 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.5 35.1 35.7 36.3 36.9 38.1 39.6 41.4 43.2 44.9 46.6 48.1 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 7 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 20 21 24 26 24 27 27 29 30 32 32 29 26 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -8. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 10. 7. 6. 6. 2. 1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 2. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 10.5 34.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/05/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.54 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 35.1% 22.4% 15.4% 8.6% 13.1% 12.0% 15.5% Logistic: 12.1% 22.9% 13.7% 16.0% 11.3% 16.7% 10.2% 3.3% Bayesian: 14.2% 63.0% 35.1% 6.7% 6.2% 15.3% 6.4% 0.0% Consensus: 12.5% 40.4% 23.7% 12.7% 8.7% 15.0% 9.5% 6.3% DTOPS: 7.0% 9.0% 6.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 9.7% 24.7% 14.8% 9.3% 5.3% 8.0% 5.2% 4.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/05/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 8( 17) 7( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 77 80 81 80 77 76 76 72 71 68 67 68 70 72 78 18HR AGO 70 69 72 75 76 75 72 71 71 67 66 63 62 63 65 67 73 12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 70 69 66 65 65 61 60 57 56 57 59 61 67 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 60 57 56 56 52 51 48 47 48 50 52 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT