* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/05/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 76 79 79 76 75 74 73 72 72 72 75 77 80 83 V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 76 79 79 76 75 74 73 72 72 72 75 77 80 83 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 72 74 76 76 74 71 69 68 67 67 68 69 69 69 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 5 9 13 14 9 11 7 8 14 15 18 18 17 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 11 7 3 7 4 5 4 9 8 3 5 10 9 12 7 SHEAR DIR 360 356 343 248 258 227 210 205 156 223 273 302 300 10 47 77 137 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 161 163 163 163 159 152 147 150 148 152 160 163 163 159 154 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 64 64 63 58 55 55 51 51 51 51 52 52 59 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 19 20 20 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 19 19 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 36 39 42 39 35 31 23 3 -23 -44 -59 -49 -58 -79 -103 -90 -31 200 MB DIV 30 39 29 39 75 63 24 4 8 15 15 -9 6 -27 -5 31 33 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 6 3 6 0 0 3 2 4 8 11 7 4 8 LAND (KM) 1610 1601 1597 1611 1630 1737 1742 1710 1697 1697 1625 1538 1424 1342 1303 1304 1325 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.4 12.6 14.0 15.4 16.8 18.1 19.5 20.7 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.9 34.5 35.2 35.8 36.5 37.6 38.9 40.6 42.5 44.2 45.7 47.3 48.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 20 21 22 26 25 26 28 28 29 32 34 30 27 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -8. -8. -10. -8. -8. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 14. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 10.3 33.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/05/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 269.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.65 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.57 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 33.4% 20.7% 16.1% 9.0% 13.5% 12.3% 16.2% Logistic: 10.7% 20.1% 12.4% 16.2% 11.5% 20.3% 10.5% 5.2% Bayesian: 10.8% 54.2% 25.1% 4.6% 4.0% 15.2% 5.0% 0.1% Consensus: 9.7% 35.9% 19.4% 12.3% 8.2% 16.3% 9.3% 7.2% DTOPS: 9.0% 11.0% 7.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 9.3% 23.4% 13.2% 10.6% 5.1% 8.6% 5.1% 4.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/05/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 7( 13) 7( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 73 76 79 79 76 75 74 73 72 72 72 75 77 80 83 18HR AGO 65 64 68 71 74 74 71 70 69 68 67 67 67 70 72 75 78 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 67 67 64 63 62 61 60 60 60 63 65 68 71 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 58 55 54 53 52 51 51 51 54 56 59 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT