* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/04/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 72 75 79 77 75 74 73 72 76 77 81 83 84 84 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 72 75 79 77 75 74 73 72 76 77 81 83 84 84 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 67 70 72 76 76 73 69 68 68 71 72 74 74 71 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 7 4 4 10 12 14 6 8 6 8 11 16 18 24 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 12 9 12 10 4 9 7 7 9 7 8 8 10 8 6 7 SHEAR DIR 19 358 15 348 277 225 226 213 156 184 239 289 282 317 4 44 92 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 157 161 163 163 162 154 149 151 149 150 156 161 163 163 156 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 64 64 64 59 59 56 56 54 55 51 53 50 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 20 19 21 20 20 20 20 20 22 22 25 25 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 37 42 40 32 18 8 -12 -34 -49 -49 -53 -55 -85 -91 -81 200 MB DIV 20 34 34 22 41 59 50 14 1 1 6 4 3 -28 -34 1 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 2 4 6 5 0 2 4 3 8 13 9 3 1 LAND (KM) 1629 1625 1624 1623 1626 1681 1734 1702 1705 1709 1642 1557 1484 1405 1358 1349 1390 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.2 12.0 13.2 14.7 16.2 17.6 19.0 20.4 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.3 33.9 34.5 35.2 35.9 37.1 38.4 40.0 41.6 43.3 45.3 46.9 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 10 11 10 11 11 9 9 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 20 20 20 22 24 25 24 28 28 29 30 33 32 27 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 22. 23. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -2. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 17. 15. 14. 13. 12. 16. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 10.2 33.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/04/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.27 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.59 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 33.5% 20.1% 13.8% 7.8% 15.8% 12.7% 16.5% Logistic: 11.1% 21.1% 13.1% 18.2% 14.5% 25.2% 16.1% 8.0% Bayesian: 7.9% 49.8% 22.1% 2.8% 2.8% 13.0% 14.5% 0.4% Consensus: 8.8% 34.8% 18.4% 11.6% 8.4% 18.0% 14.4% 8.3% DTOPS: 11.0% 14.0% 8.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% SDCON: 9.9% 24.4% 13.2% 10.8% 5.7% 10.0% 8.2% 5.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/04/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 7( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 68 72 75 79 77 75 74 73 72 76 77 81 83 84 84 18HR AGO 60 59 63 67 70 74 72 70 69 68 67 71 72 76 78 79 79 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 63 67 65 63 62 61 60 64 65 69 71 72 72 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 57 55 53 52 51 50 54 55 59 61 62 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT