* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/04/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 75 83 88 88 87 84 82 83 83 86 86 83 79 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 75 83 88 88 87 84 82 83 83 86 86 83 79 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 66 70 79 86 88 86 83 81 80 80 79 78 72 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 11 6 3 7 9 6 10 4 7 10 11 10 26 33 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 8 9 4 7 9 5 10 8 3 7 12 11 2 6 SHEAR DIR 25 17 14 21 24 270 256 193 245 218 260 272 294 331 3 40 59 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 157 163 163 163 160 152 147 151 150 155 161 163 162 157 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 68 67 64 61 59 56 56 53 54 56 56 52 52 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 19 21 23 25 25 25 25 25 27 27 29 29 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 21 26 28 32 41 41 35 16 9 -19 -37 -39 -38 -43 -58 -77 -21 200 MB DIV 12 30 50 38 39 92 94 57 27 32 12 31 10 -46 -41 -2 23 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 4 2 0 4 8 5 9 10 4 11 LAND (KM) 1631 1619 1610 1599 1593 1617 1701 1696 1687 1697 1694 1582 1499 1399 1353 1322 1302 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.3 12.3 13.7 15.3 16.8 18.2 19.6 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.6 35.3 36.6 37.8 39.2 40.8 42.5 44.4 46.2 47.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 21 21 21 23 25 25 26 28 28 30 33 33 28 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 6. 5. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 20. 28. 33. 33. 32. 29. 27. 28. 28. 31. 31. 28. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 9.9 32.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/04/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.62 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 37.7% 23.5% 16.1% 7.8% 21.2% 15.2% 19.7% Logistic: 12.4% 26.4% 16.7% 18.6% 14.9% 25.4% 16.5% 12.3% Bayesian: 6.4% 57.9% 27.1% 6.4% 3.2% 13.6% 6.7% 1.7% Consensus: 8.6% 40.6% 22.4% 13.7% 8.7% 20.1% 12.8% 11.2% DTOPS: 13.0% 18.0% 7.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 6.0% SDCON: 10.8% 29.3% 14.7% 10.8% 5.8% 11.0% 9.9% 8.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/04/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 5( 7) 9( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 4( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 65 69 75 83 88 88 87 84 82 83 83 86 86 83 79 18HR AGO 55 54 59 63 69 77 82 82 81 78 76 77 77 80 80 77 73 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 61 69 74 74 73 70 68 69 69 72 72 69 65 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 51 59 64 64 63 60 58 59 59 62 62 59 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT