* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/04/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 56 64 70 77 79 83 88 97 98 102 98 98 98 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 56 64 70 77 79 83 88 97 98 102 98 98 98 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 52 54 59 66 73 77 78 82 86 91 93 89 84 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 18 17 12 2 6 7 4 1 7 9 8 16 13 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 4 7 7 1 5 6 6 -1 0 0 8 11 15 10 SHEAR DIR 356 15 20 32 23 21 221 244 193 205 46 346 309 301 287 293 350 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 152 156 163 163 163 157 152 150 149 150 154 157 160 162 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 9 9 11 10 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 73 71 69 67 64 62 59 58 54 52 54 58 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 20 20 20 22 22 26 26 27 28 32 31 34 33 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR 17 15 20 26 32 46 43 38 17 3 -16 -29 -30 -31 -31 -39 -28 200 MB DIV 49 29 9 34 50 16 68 64 41 30 2 30 11 20 20 -25 -31 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 2 1 3 6 3 -2 -1 1 7 14 18 17 8 LAND (KM) 1630 1665 1644 1627 1612 1618 1679 1724 1681 1667 1662 1676 1573 1532 1505 1473 1424 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.5 11.1 12.0 12.9 14.2 15.5 16.8 18.3 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.7 32.4 33.0 33.6 34.3 35.8 37.2 38.3 39.8 41.3 43.0 44.7 46.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 10 10 11 12 11 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 21 21 20 22 24 25 25 28 29 28 28 30 29 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 6. 8. 8. 13. 11. 14. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 19. 25. 32. 34. 38. 43. 52. 53. 57. 53. 53. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 9.9 31.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/04/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.68 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 16.5% 10.6% 7.9% 5.2% 11.6% 12.7% 21.2% Logistic: 4.8% 11.8% 5.9% 4.0% 2.9% 7.2% 10.8% 11.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 23.4% 6.4% 0.6% 0.9% 3.8% 4.7% 4.2% Consensus: 3.4% 17.2% 7.6% 4.2% 3.0% 7.5% 9.4% 12.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 29.0% 16.0% 12.0% 6.0% 21.0% 20.0% 7.0% SDCON: 4.7% 23.1% 11.8% 8.1% 4.5% 14.2% 14.7% 9.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/04/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 54 56 64 70 77 79 83 88 97 98 102 98 98 98 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 52 60 66 73 75 79 84 93 94 98 94 94 94 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 54 60 67 69 73 78 87 88 92 88 88 88 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 45 51 58 60 64 69 78 79 83 79 79 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT