* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/03/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 63 68 76 83 87 85 88 88 87 93 95 98 100 96 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 63 68 76 83 87 85 88 88 87 93 95 98 100 96 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 58 62 69 79 86 89 87 85 86 91 96 96 93 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 13 11 7 6 8 8 5 6 4 7 14 8 5 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 6 7 5 3 4 10 10 6 6 0 0 0 2 5 SHEAR DIR 345 359 10 12 27 353 292 249 225 170 72 57 314 300 316 338 24 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.7 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 152 152 161 163 161 158 152 147 152 150 151 156 160 162 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 73 72 70 66 64 61 61 57 56 51 54 53 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 19 21 21 22 25 26 25 30 29 28 32 32 34 35 31 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 21 27 31 36 41 35 26 15 -8 -21 -31 -34 -40 -35 -37 200 MB DIV 64 56 40 27 47 29 44 69 90 30 27 7 28 23 40 -26 -47 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 0 1 0 0 2 3 0 -2 -1 3 11 6 6 4 LAND (KM) 1571 1628 1686 1671 1659 1639 1679 1756 1719 1694 1709 1706 1611 1544 1506 1463 1442 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.9 12.8 13.9 15.2 16.7 18.0 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.2 31.8 32.4 33.0 33.7 35.2 36.7 37.8 39.1 40.6 42.2 43.9 45.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 21 20 20 21 23 26 25 26 28 28 29 29 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 7. 9. 8. 13. 12. 10. 14. 13. 14. 14. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 14. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 31. 38. 42. 40. 43. 43. 42. 48. 50. 53. 55. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.1 31.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/03/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.67 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 27.8% 14.4% 9.4% 6.3% 13.0% 13.5% 21.2% Logistic: 9.0% 20.6% 11.2% 8.5% 5.5% 9.6% 10.9% 9.2% Bayesian: 4.5% 37.5% 13.0% 2.8% 3.5% 8.8% 4.4% 2.5% Consensus: 6.4% 28.7% 12.9% 6.9% 5.1% 10.5% 9.6% 11.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 77.0% 49.0% 26.0% 11.0% 77.0% 64.0% 15.0% SDCON: 11.2% 52.8% 30.9% 16.4% 8.0% 43.7% 36.8% 13.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/03/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 57 63 68 76 83 87 85 88 88 87 93 95 98 100 96 18HR AGO 45 44 50 56 61 69 76 80 78 81 81 80 86 88 91 93 89 12HR AGO 45 42 41 47 52 60 67 71 69 72 72 71 77 79 82 84 80 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 48 55 59 57 60 60 59 65 67 70 72 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT