* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/03/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 55 61 68 78 82 87 84 89 94 98 101 102 100 101 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 55 61 68 78 82 87 84 89 94 98 101 102 100 101 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 49 53 60 70 82 89 91 90 89 92 96 96 91 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 5 5 4 8 2 2 6 7 8 8 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 1 2 8 6 3 6 9 9 0 -1 0 7 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 341 342 355 29 44 51 6 240 267 259 12 33 324 287 312 261 2 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 153 152 156 161 163 162 155 149 150 148 150 153 158 158 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 75 76 78 75 73 71 65 63 61 60 59 58 54 53 54 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 21 21 24 24 27 25 28 30 32 33 34 32 31 850 MB ENV VOR 14 22 28 27 34 43 43 40 34 14 -2 -20 -27 -18 -27 -20 -15 200 MB DIV 65 65 76 33 5 31 28 79 82 38 21 29 26 28 31 39 -47 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 5 3 0 -1 1 8 8 10 5 LAND (KM) 1509 1560 1612 1670 1665 1637 1657 1707 1767 1735 1716 1704 1676 1582 1552 1517 1552 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.7 11.4 12.2 13.3 14.6 16.0 17.3 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.6 31.1 31.6 32.2 32.8 34.2 35.6 36.9 38.1 39.5 41.2 43.0 44.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 22 22 20 20 22 24 26 24 27 28 28 28 29 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. 41. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 6. 6. 9. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 12. 9. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 28. 38. 42. 47. 44. 49. 54. 58. 61. 62. 60. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.1 30.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/03/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.71 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 28.8% 14.2% 9.3% 6.4% 12.7% 13.1% 22.4% Logistic: 14.8% 35.4% 21.3% 15.9% 13.3% 18.0% 17.2% 17.7% Bayesian: 5.9% 52.1% 17.7% 4.2% 4.7% 7.5% 1.8% 6.6% Consensus: 8.6% 38.8% 17.7% 9.8% 8.1% 12.8% 10.7% 15.6% DTOPS: 5.0% 44.0% 17.0% 7.0% 2.0% 10.0% 6.0% 20.0% SDCON: 6.8% 41.4% 17.3% 8.4% 5.0% 11.4% 8.3% 17.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/03/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 49 55 61 68 78 82 87 84 89 94 98 101 102 100 101 18HR AGO 40 39 44 50 56 63 73 77 82 79 84 89 93 96 97 95 96 12HR AGO 40 37 36 42 48 55 65 69 74 71 76 81 85 88 89 87 88 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 43 53 57 62 59 64 69 73 76 77 75 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT