* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/03/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 55 64 69 76 81 80 81 83 88 91 96 95 97 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 55 64 69 76 81 80 81 83 88 91 96 95 97 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 43 45 52 59 68 77 82 80 79 82 88 93 93 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 12 9 8 7 4 9 6 3 6 9 8 13 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 4 3 6 8 5 3 2 8 11 7 0 -2 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 335 342 343 5 26 48 358 304 250 233 80 43 46 332 321 314 327 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 152 152 159 163 161 160 153 147 152 148 149 156 165 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 78 74 74 76 76 72 71 67 67 63 63 57 54 51 51 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 19 20 22 22 24 27 27 28 28 30 30 33 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 6 10 17 19 22 35 38 43 40 28 12 -9 -23 -32 -31 -34 -29 200 MB DIV 57 48 55 60 40 23 39 50 78 76 32 36 -3 9 -6 28 -4 700-850 TADV 3 4 2 1 1 2 1 4 5 6 1 -1 -1 1 6 6 4 LAND (KM) 1460 1519 1577 1632 1686 1649 1642 1678 1748 1731 1701 1694 1692 1648 1582 1491 1334 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.6 11.1 11.8 12.7 13.7 15.0 16.3 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.2 30.8 31.3 31.8 32.4 33.7 35.1 36.3 37.6 38.8 40.3 41.9 43.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 8 9 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 22 22 22 21 20 21 23 26 25 25 28 28 28 30 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 25. 31. 35. 40. 42. 45. 45. 47. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 10. 13. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 29. 34. 41. 46. 45. 46. 48. 53. 56. 61. 60. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.3 30.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/03/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.37 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.75 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 19.4% 11.7% 8.5% 5.5% 11.5% 11.2% 20.0% Logistic: 11.4% 18.3% 9.7% 5.4% 3.0% 5.9% 10.0% 10.7% Bayesian: 4.0% 36.8% 15.5% 2.5% 1.7% 3.3% 1.3% 3.2% Consensus: 6.5% 24.8% 12.3% 5.5% 3.4% 6.9% 7.5% 11.3% DTOPS: 4.0% 35.0% 11.0% 4.0% 2.0% 41.0% 45.0% 26.0% SDCON: 5.2% 29.9% 11.6% 4.7% 2.7% 23.9% 26.2% 18.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/03/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 49 55 64 69 76 81 80 81 83 88 91 96 95 97 18HR AGO 35 34 39 44 50 59 64 71 76 75 76 78 83 86 91 90 92 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 42 51 56 63 68 67 68 70 75 78 83 82 84 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 40 45 52 57 56 57 59 64 67 72 71 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT