* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132024 10/03/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 53 64 71 78 82 84 84 89 88 95 98 98 97 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 53 64 71 78 82 84 84 89 88 95 98 98 97 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 51 58 68 78 84 86 86 87 91 96 97 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 16 13 13 9 6 6 9 7 2 8 14 6 4 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 6 4 2 7 6 1 3 8 12 7 1 -1 3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 341 334 344 345 7 49 20 11 275 262 74 50 63 33 326 315 300 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 153 152 155 161 161 161 155 150 149 150 148 152 161 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 8 10 10 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 75 77 74 70 68 65 62 58 55 53 50 51 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 18 18 23 24 26 27 30 28 31 29 32 33 33 32 850 MB ENV VOR 6 14 15 17 17 33 41 45 41 45 31 17 0 -12 -17 -29 -38 200 MB DIV 87 60 57 54 67 55 74 48 53 85 37 30 14 18 10 22 27 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 3 1 0 2 2 3 5 0 -2 0 1 7 7 9 LAND (KM) 1415 1469 1522 1575 1628 1664 1659 1661 1726 1758 1728 1713 1719 1716 1639 1556 1431 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.4 13.3 14.5 15.8 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.8 30.3 30.8 31.3 31.8 33.2 34.4 35.8 37.0 38.2 39.5 41.0 42.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 11 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 22 22 21 20 20 22 24 26 24 27 28 27 29 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 25. 31. 35. 40. 43. 45. 46. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 6. 9. 11. 14. 12. 15. 11. 14. 14. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 29. 36. 43. 47. 49. 49. 54. 53. 60. 63. 63. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.4 29.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 LESLIE 10/03/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.43 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.75 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 17.5% 11.2% 8.0% 5.0% 11.3% 11.5% 20.3% Logistic: 7.0% 15.9% 7.7% 3.5% 1.8% 3.8% 5.1% 4.7% Bayesian: 2.3% 21.8% 6.1% 0.9% 1.2% 4.0% 1.4% 1.3% Consensus: 4.2% 18.4% 8.4% 4.1% 2.6% 6.4% 6.0% 8.7% DTOPS: 5.0% 44.0% 17.0% 7.0% 3.0% 34.0% 38.0% 38.0% SDCON: 4.6% 31.2% 12.7% 5.5% 2.8% 20.2% 22.0% 23.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 LESLIE 10/03/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 48 53 64 71 78 82 84 84 89 88 95 98 98 97 18HR AGO 35 34 39 43 48 59 66 73 77 79 79 84 83 90 93 93 92 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 40 51 58 65 69 71 71 76 75 82 85 85 84 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 41 48 55 59 61 61 66 65 72 75 75 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT