* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132024 10/02/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 43 48 59 66 75 81 86 86 90 93 95 97 98 99 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 43 48 59 66 75 81 86 86 90 93 95 97 98 99 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 48 56 65 75 81 81 81 85 90 92 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 9 13 12 13 4 10 8 4 2 3 5 9 9 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 8 4 2 0 8 0 2 7 7 6 3 0 0 -2 6 SHEAR DIR 336 335 342 1 352 21 352 4 352 292 260 92 9 43 10 353 5 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 153 152 154 159 163 161 158 150 144 150 147 149 162 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 78 77 78 76 75 75 72 70 65 65 59 58 54 54 49 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 19 19 21 23 26 27 30 29 30 31 30 31 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR -4 6 12 16 17 19 42 36 44 41 31 17 0 -23 -41 -34 -20 200 MB DIV 77 111 77 61 74 81 89 51 80 84 51 1 23 18 29 -6 21 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 7 7 2 1 -1 0 6 6 LAND (KM) 1360 1423 1485 1535 1585 1656 1625 1660 1676 1748 1766 1756 1764 1773 1721 1630 1486 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.5 11.3 11.8 12.7 14.1 15.6 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.3 29.8 30.4 30.8 31.3 32.6 34.0 35.2 36.4 37.6 38.7 40.2 41.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 10 9 9 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 22 23 22 21 20 21 23 26 24 24 26 26 27 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 27. 33. 38. 43. 46. 49. 50. 52. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 5. 7. 11. 13. 17. 15. 16. 15. 13. 13. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 12. 9. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 29. 37. 45. 51. 56. 56. 60. 63. 65. 67. 68. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 29.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132024 THIRTEEN 10/02/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.50 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.80 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 20.7% 11.6% 8.1% 5.2% 11.5% 11.7% 20.8% Logistic: 10.4% 28.7% 15.9% 8.3% 4.7% 7.5% 7.7% 7.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 13.8% 3.9% 0.6% 0.3% 3.0% 0.6% 1.9% Consensus: 5.1% 21.1% 10.5% 5.7% 3.4% 7.3% 6.7% 10.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 24.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 30.0% 30.0% 27.0% SDCON: 4.0% 22.5% 8.2% 3.8% 2.2% 18.6% 18.3% 18.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132024 THIRTEEN 10/02/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 43 48 59 66 75 81 86 86 90 93 95 97 98 99 18HR AGO 30 29 34 39 44 55 62 71 77 82 82 86 89 91 93 94 95 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 47 54 63 69 74 74 78 81 83 85 86 87 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 36 43 52 58 63 63 67 70 72 74 75 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT