* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/07/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 54 47 40 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 61 54 47 40 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 56 49 44 35 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 43 43 42 43 45 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 5 5 4 6 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 238 251 254 255 270 258 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 24.1 22.7 22.4 21.8 20.3 18.7 6.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 103 95 95 92 87 83 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.7 0.3 -0.4 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 54 48 44 41 45 50 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 46 42 39 35 29 23 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 107 121 130 168 200 207 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 164 90 30 2 7 -2 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 -27 -35 -38 -49 -49 31 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1213 1376 1551 1674 1356 592 136 -258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.2 42.2 43.1 43.4 43.7 43.7 44.9 47.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.9 36.8 33.8 29.9 26.0 16.5 7.0 -2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 25 26 28 31 34 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 25 CX,CY: 18/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -5. -9. -15. -27. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -18. -25. -38. -55. -62. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 41.2 39.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/07/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 57.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/07/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/07/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 61 54 47 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 57 50 43 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 54 47 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 48 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT