* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/07/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 61 56 50 34 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 65 61 56 50 34 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 64 59 54 48 39 31 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 32 40 47 40 44 49 46 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 9 3 5 6 6 7 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 225 230 238 249 249 263 262 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 24.9 23.9 24.2 22.5 21.9 20.0 18.5 5.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 109 102 104 94 93 87 82 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 2.4 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 62 59 54 44 50 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 47 47 47 46 44 36 31 27 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 114 106 101 114 127 179 201 184 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 210 190 166 91 8 17 -4 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 28 21 -28 -46 -116 -89 -24 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1192 1189 1233 1403 1588 1332 574 254 -166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.9 39.5 41.0 42.1 43.1 43.6 44.1 45.9 48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.7 42.3 39.8 36.5 33.3 25.7 16.2 6.4 -2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 24 26 26 27 31 35 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 22 CX,CY: 16/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -11. -20. -27. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -20. -36. -55. -67. -66. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 37.9 44.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/07/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 55.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.74 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/07/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/07/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 65 61 56 50 34 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 65 60 54 38 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 61 55 39 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 54 38 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT