* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/06/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 70 66 60 43 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 74 70 66 60 43 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 74 68 63 57 46 37 30 24 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 30 34 40 45 41 47 46 41 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 13 9 5 7 5 5 7 5 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 224 227 229 238 248 257 259 252 228 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.0 24.9 24.0 24.1 22.4 21.0 19.3 17.1 5.2 5.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 118 109 103 104 95 90 84 78 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -54.0 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.5 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.7 0.3 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 64 59 48 46 56 62 68 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 47 47 47 47 39 34 31 23 21 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 111 116 124 108 117 142 186 189 212 193 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 199 192 171 173 107 -6 14 5 24 -5 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 33 26 39 12 -28 -66 -102 -97 40 19 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1257 1175 1141 1233 1367 1665 937 269 -59 -96 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.2 37.9 39.5 40.8 42.1 43.4 43.8 45.2 48.0 50.9 53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.3 45.1 43.0 40.0 37.0 29.8 20.8 11.0 1.9 -5.5 -11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 24 24 26 27 30 34 35 31 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 20 CX,CY: 10/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -24. -29. -28. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -18. -18. -11. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -7. -15. -22. -35. -40. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -20. -37. -55. -70. -84. -77. -67. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 36.2 47.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/06/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 53.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 168.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.90 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/06/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/06/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 74 70 66 60 43 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 75 71 65 48 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 72 66 49 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 64 47 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT