* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/06/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 76 72 67 51 30 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 80 76 72 67 51 30 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 79 75 70 64 52 40 33 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 31 33 36 43 47 48 48 43 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 14 12 7 6 0 4 3 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 212 228 228 229 245 251 262 246 217 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.5 25.8 24.8 23.7 22.3 21.7 19.5 17.4 5.2 5.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 123 117 109 101 94 92 85 80 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -53.4 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.0 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 71 69 67 63 50 42 51 58 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 47 46 47 47 42 35 31 26 26 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 96 111 107 109 136 185 205 217 192 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 155 193 182 179 165 13 13 0 24 23 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 49 31 43 36 7 -59 -108 -51 36 -2 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1382 1244 1140 1148 1207 1586 1283 520 95 -128 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.7 36.5 38.3 39.9 41.4 43.3 43.9 44.8 47.1 50.2 53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.5 46.8 45.0 42.4 39.8 33.2 25.1 15.2 5.0 -3.8 -11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 24 25 25 28 33 36 35 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 22 CX,CY: 8/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -18. -26. -32. -36. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -14. -20. -22. -22. -21. -14. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -12. -19. -29. -31. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -18. -34. -55. -69. -80. -75. -68. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 34.7 48.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/06/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 53.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 174.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.93 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/06/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/06/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 5( 15) 3( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 80 76 72 67 51 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 80 76 71 55 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 77 72 56 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 70 54 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 50 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT