* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/06/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 85 81 75 61 39 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 90 85 81 75 61 39 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 90 85 80 75 62 47 37 31 26 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 28 33 29 37 47 47 50 51 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 7 15 13 10 1 2 2 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 219 215 227 226 237 251 259 261 234 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.0 24.8 23.8 22.1 20.7 19.2 17.3 5.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 125 118 108 102 94 89 84 80 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.8 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 71 73 71 68 59 46 41 50 60 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 45 45 46 46 47 46 38 32 26 24 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 73 95 112 123 117 150 211 203 207 190 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 136 156 181 200 95 -6 3 5 48 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 72 51 34 41 48 -22 -83 -84 -32 21 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1590 1415 1256 1173 1136 1365 1630 909 236 -81 -142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 34.4 36.3 38.0 39.7 42.3 43.8 44.3 45.1 47.8 52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.5 48.3 47.0 44.9 42.8 36.9 29.4 20.4 10.5 1.1 -7.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 23 24 25 27 30 34 35 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 20 CX,CY: 3/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -20. -30. -39. -48. -45. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -16. -23. -26. -26. -25. -18. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -9. -19. -30. -35. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -20. -34. -56. -75. -91. -94. -83. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 32.6 49.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/06/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 155.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.85 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/06/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/06/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 10( 25) 5( 29) 0( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 90 85 81 75 61 39 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 89 85 79 65 43 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 87 81 67 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 79 65 43 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 62 40 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 90 81 75 72 63 41 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 90 85 76 70 66 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS