* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/06/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 93 89 84 73 54 33 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 96 93 89 84 73 54 33 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 96 91 87 83 72 58 44 37 33 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 24 27 29 29 40 43 42 47 42 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 4 6 12 6 8 4 3 3 4 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 228 222 222 222 228 247 255 260 252 216 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.7 26.0 24.0 22.5 21.6 19.3 17.9 5.2 5.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 131 125 118 103 95 93 85 80 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 70 73 73 70 67 55 45 50 55 64 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 45 45 45 47 48 44 36 31 27 28 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 57 80 93 120 100 133 176 222 184 195 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 88 118 143 173 153 33 14 6 18 25 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 79 66 50 40 21 2 -42 -81 -80 45 2 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1829 1637 1452 1308 1192 1246 1581 1259 455 126 -181 -70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 32.3 34.1 35.9 37.7 40.8 43.1 44.0 45.0 46.7 49.3 53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.7 49.0 48.3 46.7 45.1 39.8 33.4 24.8 14.2 4.7 -3.6 -11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 20 22 24 26 29 35 36 32 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 17 CX,CY: 1/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -20. -31. -41. -51. -53. -49. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -21. -24. -23. -22. -15. -8. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -3. -13. -21. -29. -30. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -15. -27. -46. -67. -82. -90. -84. -79. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.4 49.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/06/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/06/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/06/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 14( 33) 9( 39) 4( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 96 93 89 84 73 54 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 96 92 87 76 57 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 92 87 76 57 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 85 74 55 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 70 51 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 96 87 81 78 71 52 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 96 93 84 78 74 55 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS