* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/05/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 100 97 93 86 79 64 44 32 32 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 101 100 97 93 86 79 64 44 32 32 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 101 96 93 89 83 75 62 49 40 37 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 20 21 22 24 26 35 40 40 48 48 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 9 11 9 8 8 5 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 248 240 230 218 229 230 241 264 266 254 211 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.4 26.1 24.0 22.9 21.9 19.7 18.3 5.2 5.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 154 145 139 133 119 103 97 93 85 81 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.7 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -50.7 -50.4 -49.7 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 64 66 70 72 71 68 58 51 50 55 60 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 40 42 43 43 43 45 48 46 38 34 34 33 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 39 57 69 123 106 132 194 208 195 195 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 108 100 76 87 103 154 182 17 20 25 36 61 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 43 49 63 56 56 57 6 -65 -30 -12 50 16 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1541 1672 1810 1684 1495 1230 1253 1622 1236 519 213 -44 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 28.3 29.9 31.8 33.7 37.3 40.6 42.7 43.5 44.6 46.4 49.6 54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.4 50.2 50.0 49.1 48.3 45.1 39.9 33.1 24.5 15.3 6.2 -1.4 -7.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 18 20 21 24 27 29 33 33 31 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 16 10 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 12 CX,CY: -2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 0. -6. -16. -28. -39. -50. -57. -58. -53. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -20. -20. -19. -14. -9. -3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 4. -7. -14. -15. -17. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -8. -12. -19. -26. -41. -61. -73. -73. -68. -64. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 26.7 50.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/05/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.29 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.51 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.57 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.90 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 7.9% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% 1.4% .9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/05/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/05/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 22( 43) 14( 51) 10( 56) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 101 100 97 93 86 79 64 44 32 32 30 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 103 100 96 89 82 67 47 35 35 33 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 98 94 87 80 65 45 33 33 31 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 91 84 77 62 42 30 30 28 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 79 72 57 37 25 25 23 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 101 92 86 83 78 71 56 36 24 24 22 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 101 100 91 85 81 74 59 39 27 27 25 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS