* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/05/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 106 104 98 89 82 71 53 38 28 34 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 107 106 104 98 89 82 71 53 38 28 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 107 103 99 95 86 78 68 56 45 39 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 15 20 25 28 27 44 40 44 50 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 8 9 2 3 14 7 4 8 1 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 253 249 233 225 221 227 236 251 264 255 222 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.2 27.8 26.7 24.9 24.1 22.5 20.4 18.8 16.8 5.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 154 142 138 125 109 105 96 87 81 76 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.1 -50.7 -49.8 -49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 5 4 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 64 68 70 73 69 63 53 51 55 62 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 40 42 44 42 44 46 46 41 36 30 33 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 33 31 42 54 111 101 106 163 242 215 248 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 112 103 64 87 142 188 108 -29 11 19 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 31 39 55 58 59 43 43 -38 -95 -51 3 -14 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1480 1574 1679 1849 1672 1321 1196 1426 1508 797 287 -37 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.9 28.4 30.2 31.9 35.8 39.4 42.1 44.0 45.0 45.9 48.4 52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.1 50.1 50.2 49.7 49.2 46.6 42.2 36.2 27.9 18.8 9.8 3.2 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 17 18 20 23 26 29 32 32 28 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 20 16 9 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -5. -16. -28. -40. -52. -60. -66. -66. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -7. -10. -14. -20. -20. -20. -19. -13. -8. -3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. -2. -10. -20. -16. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 5. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -12. -21. -28. -39. -57. -72. -82. -76. -72. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 25.4 50.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/05/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.29 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 466.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.44 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.57 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.91 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 8.4% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 2.1% 1.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/05/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/05/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 21( 59) 11( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 107 106 104 98 89 82 71 53 38 28 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 108 106 100 91 84 73 55 40 30 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 104 98 89 82 71 53 38 28 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 94 85 78 67 49 34 24 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 82 75 64 46 31 21 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 107 98 92 89 83 76 65 47 32 22 23 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 107 106 97 91 87 80 69 51 36 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS