* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/05/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 109 108 104 96 91 85 70 52 38 36 40 44 47 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 112 109 108 104 96 91 85 70 52 38 36 35 40 36 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 112 110 106 102 93 86 76 63 49 40 36 32 33 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 19 21 22 23 23 28 38 41 38 44 48 35 30 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 9 8 4 6 6 5 6 5 10 11 5 2 3 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 252 252 244 230 220 237 229 240 265 267 253 222 197 193 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.3 26.0 24.0 22.4 21.0 19.1 17.2 17.2 5.2 5.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 159 152 142 132 119 103 95 90 83 77 76 65 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -50.8 -50.3 -48.9 -48.5 -48.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.2 1.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 62 64 66 72 72 68 57 50 50 58 66 64 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 39 39 42 42 44 47 48 46 39 31 30 33 28 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 34 40 36 43 86 129 124 143 191 224 233 183 163 86 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 116 86 103 69 115 166 161 31 10 15 33 43 17 -58 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 21 34 56 56 48 55 24 -60 -72 -12 2 17 -20 -44 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1452 1501 1562 1701 1848 1486 1244 1287 1648 1189 493 115 -42 28 -40 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.6 26.9 28.6 30.2 33.8 37.4 40.7 43.1 44.5 45.6 47.8 51.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.7 50.0 50.3 50.0 49.8 48.2 44.6 39.3 32.5 23.9 14.3 6.2 0.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 17 18 21 25 27 30 33 32 27 22 17 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 23 20 15 9 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 1. -5. -15. -28. -41. -54. -63. -69. -74. -70. -65. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -16. -20. -21. -20. -19. -13. -7. -3. 2. 9. 16. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 11. 8. -3. -14. -17. -13. -20. -26. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -11. -19. -24. -30. -45. -63. -77. -79. -75. -71. -68. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 24.3 49.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/05/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.30 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 550.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.55 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 7.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/05/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/05/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 28( 50) 26( 63) 19( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 20 4( 23) 0( 23) 0( 23) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 112 109 108 104 96 91 85 70 52 38 36 35 40 36 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 111 110 106 98 93 87 72 54 40 38 37 42 38 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 106 98 93 87 72 54 40 38 37 42 38 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 101 93 88 82 67 49 35 33 32 37 33 DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 88 83 77 62 44 30 28 27 32 28 DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 112 103 97 94 90 85 79 64 46 32 30 29 34 30 DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 112 109 100 94 90 85 79 64 46 32 30 29 34 30 DIS DIS