* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/04/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 111 110 107 99 91 87 76 61 50 42 41 50 57 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 112 111 110 107 99 91 87 76 61 50 42 41 47 34 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 111 109 107 105 98 89 81 69 55 45 39 36 35 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 18 21 20 22 22 34 42 42 46 57 63 55 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 9 9 7 7 7 9 12 5 11 6 7 12 13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 250 260 246 239 227 221 233 236 257 260 262 254 244 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.0 27.8 26.9 24.9 24.2 21.6 20.1 18.2 15.1 5.2 5.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 163 159 154 137 128 110 105 91 85 80 73 66 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -50.7 -50.4 -49.3 -48.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 4 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 63 64 70 73 70 63 56 54 63 64 65 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 39 40 41 44 45 48 48 42 37 33 33 34 31 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 51 39 34 30 67 124 145 175 194 245 230 233 240 231 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 77 105 85 106 75 145 189 137 8 37 30 46 44 -37 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 10 26 35 49 57 46 65 -9 1 -6 22 77 41 -36 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1459 1459 1472 1581 1701 1672 1349 1222 1424 1619 996 524 24 22 -15 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.3 25.4 27.0 28.5 31.9 35.5 39.3 42.0 44.3 45.9 47.3 48.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.1 49.6 50.2 50.1 50.0 49.2 46.7 41.9 36.3 29.3 21.1 12.9 5.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 16 16 19 24 26 27 29 30 28 24 21 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 28 24 20 16 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -3. -13. -25. -38. -51. -60. -67. -71. -72. -67. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -18. -17. -17. -13. -7. -3. 0. 7. 14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 11. 2. -6. -13. -14. -13. -16. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -8. -15. -24. -28. -39. -54. -65. -73. -74. -65. -58. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 23.3 49.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/04/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.36 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 603.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.54 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 8.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 2.4% 1.9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/04/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/04/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 29( 51) 27( 64) 21( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 75 45( 86) 5( 87) 0( 87) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 112 111 110 107 99 91 87 76 61 50 42 41 47 34 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 113 112 109 101 93 89 78 63 52 44 43 49 36 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 107 99 91 87 76 61 50 42 41 47 34 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 102 94 86 82 71 56 45 37 36 42 29 DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 88 80 76 65 50 39 31 30 36 23 DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 112 103 97 94 88 80 76 65 50 39 31 30 36 23 DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 112 111 102 96 92 84 80 69 54 43 35 34 40 27 DIS DIS