* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122024 10/04/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 116 115 112 102 94 89 82 69 58 50 52 47 50 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 117 116 115 112 102 94 89 82 69 58 50 52 47 41 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 117 115 114 111 104 94 85 75 61 49 42 39 36 32 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 19 21 27 25 28 43 44 49 62 43 37 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 4 6 9 6 6 12 12 7 6 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 275 258 254 255 237 229 241 224 246 252 251 234 241 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.2 27.3 26.0 23.8 21.9 21.0 20.1 17.9 14.9 5.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 163 163 159 142 132 119 102 92 88 84 78 73 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.2 -51.0 -51.3 -52.2 -52.2 -51.2 -49.5 -49.9 -49.6 -49.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.5 1.3 1.0 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 6 3 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 64 63 64 63 69 73 71 66 58 61 65 67 64 67 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 38 39 41 42 44 47 49 46 41 37 39 33 29 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 54 52 40 36 41 105 132 178 218 220 260 263 266 234 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 60 79 96 82 61 136 187 198 81 34 42 71 47 34 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 10 21 42 59 30 72 17 10 23 13 -27 31 63 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1474 1461 1458 1505 1563 1838 1476 1234 1251 1601 1313 794 454 23 -33 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.5 24.4 25.6 26.8 30.3 33.9 37.5 41.6 44.2 45.2 46.2 47.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.1 49.7 49.9 50.2 49.8 48.2 44.6 39.0 32.5 25.4 18.2 10.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 15 18 21 27 28 26 25 26 24 23 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 31 28 23 21 9 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -3. -13. -26. -39. -53. -63. -71. -76. -81. -81. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -21. -19. -18. -14. -8. -5. -0. 7. 15. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 10. 13. 8. 0. -6. -4. -13. -18. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -8. -18. -26. -31. -38. -51. -62. -70. -68. -73. -70. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 22.5 48.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122024 KIRK 10/04/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.44 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 618.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.45 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 7.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 2.3% 2.5% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122024 KIRK 10/04/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122024 KIRK 10/04/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 31( 54) 30( 68) 24( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 45 46( 70) 9( 73) 0( 73) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 117 116 115 112 102 94 89 82 69 58 50 52 47 41 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 120 119 118 117 114 104 96 91 84 71 60 52 54 49 43 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 120 117 116 115 112 102 94 89 82 69 58 50 52 47 41 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 107 97 89 84 77 64 53 45 47 42 36 DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 91 83 78 71 58 47 39 41 36 30 DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 117 108 102 99 93 85 80 73 60 49 41 43 38 32 DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 117 116 107 101 97 89 84 77 64 53 45 47 42 36 DIS DIS